Penultimate Bracket time

You know it's been a long night when you look up at the clock and wonder why it's suddenly 3:30 AM. I'm still not used to this Daylight Savings Time thing. We never used to have it in Indiana. I don't mind it per se (it was nice having all those extra hours of daylight around 9 PM in the summertime), but I'll never get used to losing an hour of sleep out of the blue. And somehow, getting it back in October doesn't seem to compensate.

Anyway, enough babbling. Time for brackets --- but first, a brief note on upcoming events. This is the second-to-last bracket I'm putting up. The last one will be up at approximately 5:00 PM Eastern time tomorrow, about an hour before the selection show starts. So check back in then and see how right (or wrong) I am.

This bracket is updated through all of Saturday's games. Discussion follows below:

NetWire 2007 NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction – 3/11/2007 (Morning)
South Region			East Region			Midwest Region			West Region
San Antonio – THU/SAT			E. Rutherford – FRI/SUN			St. Louis – FRI/SUN			San Jose – THU/SAT
Chicago			New Orleans			Chicago			Sacramento
1	Kansas*		1	Florida* (SEC)		1	Ohio State* (Big 10)		1	UCLA
16	Florida A&M* (MEAC)		16	North Texas* (Sun Belt)		16	CCSU/Jackson St.* (Play-in Game)		16	Weber St.* (Big Sky)
8	BYU		8	Boston College		8	Creighton		8	Kentucky
9	Winthrop* (Big South)		9	Indiana		9	Villanova		9	Georgia Tech
Buffalo			Lexington			Winston-Salem			Spokane
5	Virginia Tech		5	Notre Dame		5	Maryland		5	UNLV* (MWC)
12	Davidson* (Southern)		12	New Mexico St.* (WAC)		12	Air Force		12	Illinois
4	Southern Illinois		4	Texas		4	Tennessee		4	Louisville
13	Holy Cross* (Patriot)		13	Wright St.* (Horizon)		13	George Washington* (A-10)		13	Miami (OH)* (MAC)
Spokane			Sacramento			New Orleans			Columbus
6	Virginia		6	Marquette		6	Arizona		6	Southern Cal
11	Old Dominion		11	Purdue		11	Syracuse		11	Gonzaga* (WCC)
3	Oregon		3	Washington St.		3	Texas A&M		3	Pittsburgh
14	Long Beach St.* (Big West)		14	TAMU-CC* (Southland)		14	Oral Roberts* (Mid-Con)		14	Pennsylvania* (Ivy)
Buffalo			Winston-Salem			Lexington			Columbus
7	Vanderbilt		7	Nevada		7	Duke		7	Butler
10	Michigan State		10	Xavier		10	VCU* (Colonial)		10	Texas Tech
2	Georgetown		2	North Carolina* (ACC)		2	Memphis* (CUSA)		2	Wisconsin
15	Albany* (Am East)		15	Belmont* (At Sun)		15	Niagara* (MAAC)		15	E. Kentucky* (OVC)

Bids by Conference
ACC	7
Big East	7
Big Ten	6
PAC-10	5
Big 12	4
Southeastern	4
Mountain West	3
Colonial	2
Horizon	2
Missouri Valley WAC Atlantic 10	2 2 2

Last four in: Purdue, Old Dominion, Illinois, Air Force
Last five out: Drexel, Arkansas, Stanford, Kansas State, Florida State

Notes:

You might as well just take the last 9 or so teams under consideration, write them down on pieces of paper, paste them to the wall, and start throwing darts, because it's almost impossible to distinguish one from the other. Everyone's got SOMETHING good going for them. Everyone's got several major blemishes. Here's how I broke them down, from the top of the last four in to the bottom of the last five out:

PURDUE: Four good wins (UVA, Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana), a decent acquittal of themselves in the Big 10 semifinals, and a 5-2 record to finish the season. They also pass the "vision test" at this point.

OLD DOMINION: Their win at Georgetown keeps going up in value. They played an acceptable out of conference schedule. They beat Drexel twice, and were 4-2 overall against the top three teams of the Colonial Athletic Association. They also finished the season 12-1.

ILLINOIS: Make no mistake --- I am not high on this team. I don't like their resume, and I have no clue how their power numbers are as high as they are. That said, they picked up a big win against Indiana in the Big Ten tournament, and that, combined with an 8-8 road record and a high-20's RPI, got them into the field. But I didn't enjoy it.

AIR FORCE: I don't have a good excuse for having Air Force in the field, other than that their style of play last year was mentioned as a major factor in their being included in the field. Well, their style of play hasn't changed at all! Meanwhile, despite a 4-game losing streak, their power numbers are far, far better than last season. Ultimately, they get this spot because none of the teams below them put up a good enough fight to take it away.

----END OF AT-LARGE FIELD---

DREXEL: I feel bad for Drexel, because they did what they were supposed to do; namely, go out and play against top competition on the road. And they did that well, winning at Villanova and Syracuse. However, there's another component that's just as important, and that's doing well in your conference...PARTICULARLY if you're in a decidedly average conference like the Colonial. Drexel finished 4th in the regular season, and went an appalling 1-5 against the three teams that finished above them. They also didn't make it to their conference tournament final.

ARKANSAS: If the Razorbacks had woken up even a week earlier, they'd probably be in by now. Unfortunately, they didn't seem interested in saving their season until the last game, when they smoked Vanderbilt in Nashville. Follow-up wins against South Carolina, Vanderbilt (again) and Mississippi State are nice, but when you've only beaten Vanderbilt and Southern Illinois all season, that's bad. It's even worse when you finish 7-9 in a terrible SEC West Division --- a division that was so bad that no team had a winning conference record in it (Mississippi State and Ole Miss tied for the "title" with 8-8 records). Arkansas can still get in if they beat Florida later today.

STANFORD: Good resume, bad finish, REALLY bad RPI. The Cardinal were one win in the PAC-10 tournament away from a bid, and they didn't make it happen.

KANSAS STATE: Note to Bob Huggins --- never listen to Digger Phelps again. Sorry Wildcats, but 10-6 in the weakest BCS conference division in basketball doesn't do it for me.

FLORIDA STATE: Another team that was one win away. Laying an egg in the ACC quarterfinals against North Carolina didn't help matters any.


Alright, so there's the field as of 4:17 AM on Sunday. There are still a few things that can change in the next 13 hours, and they are:

PARTY-CRASHERS: Arkansas can seal a bid with a win versus Florida. North Carolina State can steal a bid with a victory over UNC. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi could lose their bid in the Southland Conference title game.

SEEDING?: Okay, seeding won't change much between now and tomorrow...at least, not due to anything that happens in the games. Right now, the actual committee has already made most of its seeding decisions, and will use tomorrow to bracket the teams. I'm not totally sold on some of the seeding choices I've made, but I think that's a level of uncertainty that I'll just have to deal with. I do reserve the right to make changes tomorrow, but I'll be able to justify those changes.

AT-LARGES: Same as above. If you couldn't tell, I was very uncomfortable with both Illinois and Air Force...and honestly, I'm not all that juiced about Old Dominion anymore.


That does it for tonight. Should be an exciting day tomorrow! Check back here for updates and commentary before, during, and after the selection show.