An Early Look

Well, after almost three weeks of metaphorical bracket cooking, it's time to sit down and enjoy our meal. The NCAA Selection Committee has spoken, the field has been filled, and the play-in game is less than 48 hours away, as we get started with the 2007 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.

Overall, I thought the bracket was put together pretty well by the committee this season. If you were reading NetWire last year at this time (or if you're particularly adept at archival searching), you remember that we were less than thrilled with the job that the Littlepage Committee did with the draw. To put it less diplomatically, I thought last year was a travesty on a variety of levels, from the teams that were selected for at-large bids to the seeds that were assigned to the teams that did get in. I felt a sense of outrage after last year's draw that I hadn't ever felt before, because I believe in the integrity of the process, and felt that integrity was compromised.

This year? Well, there were a couple of questionable at-large choices (Arkansas and Illinois), but nothing that came anywhere close to the decision to select Air Force and Utah State last year. Seeding-wise, some teams were placed above their station (Littlepage's own Virginia Cavaliers at a 4, Butler at a 5, Indiana at a 7), and a few were placed below their station (UNLV, Creighton), but overall there wasn't much to complain about. The regions are fairly well-balanced, there are no glaringly easy paths, and the potentially aggrieved are a small minority. So good job, Gary Walters and committee members!

Let's get to a little bit of reader mail:

Dear NetWire,

Great site.

Winston-Salem is about 100 miles closer to D.C. than Buffalo.

Speaking of pods, I think the biggest faux pas's are Florida playing St Louis and Louisville getting to play in Lexington for rounds 1 and 2.

-Anonymous

I'm guessing this is a different "Anonymous" than the last piece of mail we got. So thank you, anonymous entity!

I mentioned in my knee-jerk post-bracket reactions on Sunday that I was surprised Georgetown had been placed in Winston-Salem rather than Buffalo, claiming that Buffalo was closer to D.C. than Tobacco Road is. As the reader points out, I was mistaken...although a Google Maps search shows that Buffalo is only about 50 miles further away. And I maintain my earlier assertion that Buffalo would be far more inviting to a Big East team than Winston-Salem! But a fair point, sir (or madam).

As for your pod comment, I agree wholeheartedly about the Florida-in-the-Gateway-City issue. I don't understand how it's advantageous for Florida to play in St. Louis, even if it is nominally closer to Gainesville than San Antonio. Very few people are going to be driving to the regional site (we do still have airplanes, right?), so does 100 miles make that big of a difference? Furthermore, it would seem to me that Florida having to potentially play a midwestern team (Wisconsin) in a midwestern city in a regional final is quite disadvantageous to the Gators.

As for Louisville playing in Lexington...well, is that really an advantage for the Cardinals? While it's true that you can drive from Louisville's campus to Lexington on your lunch break, I don't anticipate the crowds being particularly pro-Cardinals. Here's a sample comment from CatsPause.com, the infamous Kentucky message board:

"Cat fans have to become Stanford/A&M fans and be loud in Rupp. I don't want Rick to feel good in Lexington again in this lifetime."

So, there you go. Something tells me it may not matter --- Texas A&M isn't liable to be bothered by the crowds.


BRACKET BREAKDOWN

I'm still trying to wrap my mind around this bracket in terms of the favorites. For the first time in a while, I'm not enamored with the four #1 seeds, and I think that this year has the potential to be pretty wide-open in terms of who gets to the Final Four. Before we look at the regions, let's look at some interesting elements from the bracket as a whole:

CATCHING FIRE: The committee was pretty consistent this year in selecting teams that played at least .500 basketball to close the season. In fact, there were only three teams in the whole field that were selected for bids despite not having at least a 5-5 record in their last 10 games.

Those teams were Duke, Kentucky, and Stanford, all of whom went 4-6 in the last 10 games. Huh. I guess it pays to be popular!

ROAD WARRIORS?: Having success on the road was also a harbinger of inclusion in the field of 65. Only two teams in the bracket won fewer than four games in road and neutral settings.

Those teams were Georgia Tech (3-10) and Virginia (3-9).

TOP COMPETITION: If you're looking for a team that's played particularly well against the best that the nation has to offer, look no further than the UCLA Bruins. Against the rest of the tournament field, UCLA managed a staggering 13-2 record throughout the regular season. Other exemplary records included UNC (12-5) and Ohio State (11-3). The team that is theoretically the most battle-tested is the Arizona Wilcats, who played a ludicrous EIGHTEEN games against the other teams in the field, finishing 8-10.

ROAD WARRIORS II - ELECTRIC BOOGALOO: Diametrically opposite the paltry road performances of Virginia and Georgia Tech, we have the Kansas Jayhawks. The #1 seed in the West Region finished with a 14-2 road and neutral record during the regular season. Other impressive road/neutral records belong to Georgetown (14-6), Davidson (16-3), Winthrop (13-4), Niagara (13-5), and Washington State (13-5).


A QUICK LOOK AT THE...

EAST REGION: There's some quality in this bracket, but it's not necessarily at the top. North Carolina and Georgetown enter the tournament as perhaps the two most overhyped teams in college basketball. Meanwhile, you have the the Texas Durants sitting pretty at a 4 seed, a dangerous Vanderbilt squad at the 6 seed, and a Marquette-Michigan State 8/9 game that's going to produce one hell of an opponent for the top-seeded Tar Heels. EARLY PICK: Texas

MIDWEST REGION: I must be the only person not on board the Florida bandwagon. Something about this Gators team just screams "KANSAS 1997!" at me, and I don't know why. Regardless, I'm not sure what to make of this region. I don't like the #1 seed, I'm not particularly enamored with Maryland at the #4, and I don't see many upsets getting pulled in the top half of the region. The big question in the bottom half is whether Oregon can patch up their defense while keeping their offense rolling with the same intensity they showed during the PAC-10 tournament. If they can, we could see the Ducks in Atlanta. EARLY PICK: Wisconsin.

SOUTH REGION: Virginia may be the weakest #4 seed I've ever seen. That said, Tennessee has the potential to be very impressive coming out of the #5 slot, and could be the only team in the upper half of the bracket that's capable of giving Ohio State any trouble. The bottom half sets up very well for whoever wins the Louisville-Texas A&M game, as I don't see Memphis (or Nevada or Creighton) being able to stand up to either squad. EARLY PICK: Ohio State.

WEST REGION: This is the "Tradition Bracket", with a combined 30 NCAA Titles scattered among the teams. Kansas looks to have a pretty easy road to the regional final; I don't see Kentucky or Villanova putting up much of a fight in the second round. UCLA has a veritable cakewalk to the regional final as well, and they have far less travelling to do than the Jayhawks. Of all the brackets, this may be the one that holds to form the most, with the possible exception of Virginia Tech over SIU in the second round. EARLY PICK: Kansas


We'll have lots more analysis tomorrow night. Comments on the bracket? Leave a comment, or email me at thermocaster (at) gmail.com.