Breaking down the Bracket

Alright, it's time. After about 48 hours of hemming and hawing, it's time to tackle this badboy. But first, some reader mail!

Dear Netwire:

I just don't see why everyone is picking Texas A&M. Aside from having to travel to a virtual road game against Louisville, I just haven't seen any consistent play that merits an almost automatic inclusion in the Final Four.

I think it's because people don't fear Memphis. People should always fear Memphis.
In fact I'm making that a new rule.

- Mike P.

Mike, I think part of the problem is that very few people have actually seen Texas A&M for more than a game or two --- the last-second win against Kansas in Lawrence and the last-second overtime loss to the Fighting Durants in College Station. Truth be told, the Aggies are a very consistent team, and their Pomeroy Ratings bear that out - 8th in the nation in both offensive AND defensive efficiency is nothing to sneeze at.

TAMU's best wins were the aforementioned Kansas game, the Texas game in Austin, a 20-point drubbing of duckling-cum-swan Winthrop, and that 20-point pasting of Oklahoma State in Stillwater. They fell to a still-dangerous-in-December LSU team early on, and followed that up with a loss to UCLA in a virtual road game (played in Anaheim). Plus, this may be a better-prepared team than last year's Aggie squad, who came into the tournament with no prior NCAA experience and still managed to give LSU a tough game.

And you're right, Mike...people don't fear Memphis, and I'm not sure that any new rules will change that. Despite several coaches saying that this year's Memphis team plays "more like a team" (Few, 2007) than last year's squad, the fact remails that of the five non-SWAC tournament teams that the Tigers have played, they've lost three of the games, and the two teams they beat (Kentucky and Gonzaga) aren't exactly topping the money lines in Vegas right now.


Let's keep those emails and letters coming! Either post a comment below or email me at thermocaster (at) gmail.com.

Alright, let's start our bracket breakdown.


EAST REGION

The East Region is an interesting animal. We've got the most overrated #1 seed on the board (North Carolina), the hottest #2 seed (Georgetown), the most suspect #3 seed (Washington State), the best player in the country (Texas' Kevin Durant), the most undeserving at-large team (Arkansas) and the oddity of having two of the pods played in the Eastern time zone and the other two played in the Pacific time zone. This may be the least "chalk" bracket in the whole tournament.

Keep an eye on the 3/14 game (Washington State vs Oral Roberts). ORU is a senior-laden squad, with its top two players having started for four years. Ironically, Oral Roberts has more tournament experience than Washington State, whose last appearance came in 1994. Tony Bennett deserves a lot of credit for bringing this squad back from the dead, but one has to wonder whether the Cougars haven't peaked already.

Maybe I'm a fool, but I've seen enough of this North Carolina team to be wary of picking them for much of anything. Georgetown seems to have a clear path to the regional final, and they may be the safest #2-seed to pick for a Final Four trip. But I really like the way that Texas is playing right now.

PICKS
(8) Michigan State over (1) North Carolina
(4) Texas over (5) Southern Cal
(6) Vanderbilt over (14) Oral Roberts
(2) Georgetown over (7) Boston College

(4) Texas over (8) Michigan State
(2) Georgetown over (6) Vanderbilt

(2) Georgetown over (4) Texas


SOUTH REGION

Is it just me, or did the committee just decide "Hey, we really want Greg Oden in the Final Four"? I count exactly one team in the upper half of the bracket that could give them a challenge, and that's Tennessee. The two teams played a close game back in early January, with OSU winning 68-66. However, keep in mind that Oden had only been back for about a month at that point, and Mike Conley had about 15 fewer games under his belt than he's got now.

In the other half of the bracket, I can't help but like Texas A&M, despite Mike P.'s misgivings. Louisville's resurrection in the second half of this year has been laudible, but lost in all the Pitino hoopla is the fact that the Cardinals have only beaten three teams in the RPI top 50 all year - I wouldn't be shocked if Stanford pulled off the upset in the first round. I really like Creighton's chances of landing in the Sweet 16 --- after a couple years of tournament underperformance, the Blue Jays may be due.

PICKS
(1) Ohio State over (8) BYU
(5) Tennessee over (13) Albany
(3) Texas A&M over (6) Louisville
(10) Creighton over (2) Memphis

(1) Ohio State over (5) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M over (10) Creighton

(1) Ohio State over (3) Texas A&M


MIDWEST REGION

After listing to the pundits talk the last two days, I have to wonder why we're even bothering to play the games in the Midwest Region, since the Florida Gators have already been granted a spot in the Final Four. Sorry, but the Gators don't impress me - they got away with playing a relatively soft schedule (for a top-level BCS school), playing in a weak SEC, and really haven't looked impressive against a good opponent in months (and no, the SEC tournament does not count). Furthermore, the Gators really lucked out with LAST year's tournament draw - they avoided the #2 seed in their own region, got to play the weakest of the four #1 seeds, and then got an out-of-their-league George Mason team in the Final Four.

All that said, can anyone take out the Gators in this region? The answer is yes...kinda. Maryland has the athletes to do it, but the history of Maryland in the tournament without Juan Dixon isn't very good. Arizona also has the athletes to do it, but that would require the Wildcats to turn in their first great performance of the year. Oregon has the momentum to do it, but can the Ducks get past their second round opponent (be it Notre Dame or Winthrop)? Wisconsin has the intelligence and pace to do it, but the lack of Brian Butch down low might be too much to overcome. Call me crazy, but I like Oregon as the random "What the hell?" team in the Final Four.

PICKS
(1) Florida over (8) Arizona
(4) Maryland over (5) Butler
(3) Oregon over (11) Winthrop
(2) Wisconsin over (10) Georgia Tech

(4) Maryland over (1) Florida
(3) Oregon over (2) Wisconsin

(3) Oregon over (4) Maryland


WEST REGION

For a bracket with a combined 30 National Titles, the West is surprisingly pedestrian in terms of top seeds. I love the way Kansas is playing right now, and I have a hard time seeing any of the teams in their half of the bracket giving them much of a battle. UCLA as a #2 seed doesn't do much for me. Yes, I know they took the exact same route last year to the title game, but having watched UCLA quite a bit this year, there's something missing from the way they play that I can't quite put my finger on.

Don't be shocked at all to see Duke make it to the Elite 8 out of the bottom of this bracket. The Blue Devils have the talent required to do it, and I'm highly unimpressed with Pitt's ability to grit its teeth and get things done. Then again, don't be shocked to see Duke lose in the first round, either.

PICKS
(1) Kansas over (9) Villanova
(4) Southern Illinois over (12) Illinois
(6) Duke over (3) Pittsburgh
(2) UCLA over (7) Indiana

(1) Kansas over (4) Southern Illinois
(6) Duke over (2) UCLA

(1) Kansas over (6) Duke


FINAL FOUR

(1) Kansas over (3) Oregon
(1) Ohio State over (2) Georgetown

(1) Kansas over (1) Ohio State